A report described tension between U.S. policy priorities of lowering consumer prices and boosting domestic chip production, noting Apple and Micron are both affected by the debate over Chinese chips.
Read →Based on its own history, a month from now AAPL has typically landed between −11.2% and +12.5%.
actual price median path middle 50% (IQR) 90% range
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,648 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-07-24. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2008-09-08 | −43.6% | −43.6% | +0.0% |
| 2008-09-10 | −41.4% | −41.4% | +0.7% |
| 2008-09-09 | −40.7% | −41.2% | +0.7% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2009-03-06 | +38.7% | −2.7% | +38.7% |
| 2009-03-09 | +38.6% | +0.0% | +42.6% |
| 2020-07-24 | +36.1% | +0.0% | +36.1% |
4,648 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-07-24 · not cherry-picked
FundamentalsiAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.
$4.9T
market cap
$8.27
EPS (TTM)
40.3
P/E (TTM)
2026-07-30
next earnings
Revenue$416.2B
'20'25
Net income$112.0B
'20'25
Free cash flow$98.8B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr26.9%
'20'25
ROE · by yr151.9%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr1.52
'20'25
Fair value — three views
iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 80 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.- DCF (intrinsic)$145.49
- Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 34.2× · n=80$282.88
- Analyst target · range $253.00–$400.00$330.00
- Current price$333.02
Seasonality · by month
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
44%
−0.2%
n=18
Feb
58%
+2.0%
n=19
Mar
63%
+3.7%
n=19
Apr
58%
+3.6%
n=19
May
63%
+3.6%
n=19
Jun
47%
+0.5%
n=19
Jul
89%
+7.1%
n=19
Aug
67%
+4.8%
n=18
Sep
39%
−1.8%
n=18
Oct
67%
+3.0%
n=18
Nov
61%
+1.8%
n=18
Dec
56%
−0.3%
n=18
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Company insiders
Last 90 days · as of 2026-07-22 · point-in-time by filing date
Conviction purchases (open-market common)none
Insider open-market sales6 · $87.6M
What was excluded from the conviction count, and why
4 option exercises, 2 gifts and 2 tax-withholding dispositions excluded — these carry no conviction information.
Congressional disclosuresiDisclosures shown as facts. In our data, weeks with clustered congressional buying showed no forward edge (−17 bp/mo, n=1,683) — this is not a signal to trade on. See /methodology.
As of 2026-07-22 · point-in-time by filed date
All disclosed trades (broad sample)baseline forward return +1.97%/mo · n=826,150 ticker-weeks
≥2-distinct-buyer clusters (subset)+1.80%/mo · n=1,683 → −17 bp/mo vs baseline — no forward edge
The spec's illustrative “+46 bp/mo (n=38,134)” cluster tilt is not reproduced in our data (audition-log 2026-07-25) — so we publish the measured figures above, not that number.
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alan Armstrong | Senate | purchase | 2026-07-21 | 2026-03-27 | $250–500K |
| Alan Armstrong | Senate | purchase | 2026-07-21 | 2026-03-30 | $1–15K |
| Daniel Crenshaw | House | sale | 2026-07-16 | 2026-06-01 | $1–15K |
| Sheldon Whitehouse | Senate | sale | 2026-07-08 | 2026-06-24 | $15–50K |
| Sheldon Whitehouse | Senate | sale | 2026-07-08 | 2026-06-24 | $15–50K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-07-06 | 2026-06-05 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | purchase | 2026-07-02 | 2026-06-05 | $1–15K |
| Matthew Robert Van Epps | House | sale | 2026-06-17 | 2026-06-16 | $1–15K |
| Tim Walberg | House | purchase | 2026-06-03 | 2025-02-07 | $15–50K |
| Cleo Fields | House | purchase | 2026-06-03 | 2026-05-14 | $1–15K |
| Ed Case | House | purchase | 2026-05-31 | 2026-05-14 | $1–15K |
| David J. Taylor | House | sale | 2026-05-28 | 2026-05-15 | $1–15K |
| David J. Taylor | House | sale | 2026-05-28 | 2026-05-15 | $1–15K |
| John Mcguire | House | purchase | 2026-05-13 | 2026-04-15 | $1–15K |
What's happening · recap
claude-opus-4-8Generated 2026-07-25 · stored before display, never written live
On 2026-07-24, multiple outlets reported that Apple shares helped support the Dow while broader semiconductor and megacap technology stocks faced pressure, and coverage noted Apple's upcoming quarterly results and a policy conflict involving chip sourcing from China.
In the news
An article grouped Apple with Visa as companies generating substantial cash, ahead of both firms' upcoming quarterly results.
Read →A market commentary noted a rotation among Magnificent Seven stocks with Apple shares moving higher amid the shift.
Read →An opinion piece described continued personal share purchases of Apple stock by the writer.
Read →U.S. stocks were reported mixed, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average gaining partly due to Apple shares offsetting weakness in semiconductor stocks, while the S&P 500 closed near flat.
Read →A report stated that Magnificent Seven stocks, a group that includes Apple, lost a combined $787 billion in market value in a single day amid concerns over AI infrastructure spending following Alphabet and Tesla earnings.
Read →An article on the Fidelity High Dividend ETF (FDVV) noted its portfolio composition includes tech mega-caps and discussed sector-tilt weighting affecting yield calculations.
Read →A market wrap noted the S&P 500 rose 0.6% at midday amid easing Middle East tensions and falling oil prices, highlighting a divergence between traditional-economy gains and technology-sector movement.
Read →Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. Full terms.