How often are we right?
One probability per S&P 500 stock — logged when it's made, scored when the month is up. Every number carries its confidence interval.
StockForecaster publishes a probability for one precise question about each S&P 500 stock — will its total return over the next month be positive — and then logs that forecast immutably and scores it automatically when the month is up. Every number carries its confidence interval and effective sample size. We describe how often similar situations have resolved historically; we never tell you what to do about it.
Stocks
as of 2026-07-22Directional probability + price-anchored ranges. The first calibration scores publish about a month after the first batch resolves.
Browse stocks →Crypto majors
as of 2026-07-24Distribution ranges only — crypto's monthly direction hasn't proven calibratable, so no directional probability is published. A separate, younger record.
Browse crypto →Two separate records, never blended. Use the search up top, or a quick-access button above.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. Full terms.