Microsoft, Nvidia, Palantir and Meta joined more than 20 technology companies urging U.S. policymakers on matters related to AI restrictions.
Read →Based on its own history, a month from now MSFT has typically landed between −10.7% and +11.6%.
actual price median path middle 50% (IQR) 90% range
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,648 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-07-24. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-13 | −26.1% | −26.1% | +2.2% |
| 2020-02-20 | −25.5% | −26.6% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-18 | −24.8% | −27.5% | +0.3% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2025-04-21 | +27.8% | +0.0% | +28.0% |
| 2020-03-23 | +27.6% | +0.0% | +31.3% |
| 2020-03-18 | +27.2% | −3.1% | +27.2% |
4,648 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-07-24 · not cherry-picked
FundamentalsiAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.
$2.8T
market cap
$16.80
EPS (TTM)
22.7
P/E (TTM)
2026-07-29
next earnings
Revenue$281.7B
'20'25
Net income$101.8B
'20'25
Free cash flow$71.6B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr36.1%
'20'25
ROE · by yr29.6%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr0.33
'20'25
Fair value — three views
iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 80 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.- DCF (intrinsic)$285.55
- Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 34.2× · n=80$574.64
- Analyst target · range $400.00–$680.00$550.00
- Current price$381.70
Seasonality · by month
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
56%
+0.2%
n=18
Feb
47%
−0.9%
n=19
Mar
68%
+2.2%
n=19
Apr
74%
+4.4%
n=19
May
58%
+1.8%
n=19
Jun
53%
+1.2%
n=19
Jul
68%
+2.6%
n=19
Aug
61%
+1.5%
n=18
Sep
50%
−1.1%
n=18
Oct
61%
+3.2%
n=18
Nov
67%
+2.2%
n=18
Dec
56%
+0.4%
n=18
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Company insiders
Last 90 days · as of 2026-07-22 · point-in-time by filing date
Conviction purchases (open-market common)none
Insider open-market sales4 · $10.5M
What was excluded from the conviction count, and why
24 award/RSU grants and 5 tax-withholding dispositions excluded — these carry no conviction information.
Congressional disclosuresiDisclosures shown as facts. In our data, weeks with clustered congressional buying showed no forward edge (−17 bp/mo, n=1,683) — this is not a signal to trade on. See /methodology.
As of 2026-07-22 · point-in-time by filed date
All disclosed trades (broad sample)baseline forward return +1.97%/mo · n=826,150 ticker-weeks
≥2-distinct-buyer clusters (subset)+1.80%/mo · n=1,683 → −17 bp/mo vs baseline — no forward edge
The spec's illustrative “+46 bp/mo (n=38,134)” cluster tilt is not reproduced in our data (audition-log 2026-07-25) — so we publish the measured figures above, not that number.
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alan Armstrong | Senate | purchase | 2026-07-21 | 2026-03-30 | $1–15K |
| Alan Armstrong | Senate | purchase | 2026-07-21 | 2026-03-27 | $15–50K |
| Thomas H. Kean Jr | House | sale | 2026-07-15 | 2026-06-02 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-07-06 | 2026-06-16 | $250–500K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-07-06 | 2026-06-02 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | sale | 2026-07-02 | 2026-06-16 | $15–50K |
| Cleo Fields | House | purchase | 2026-06-26 | 2026-06-11 | $1–15K |
| Cleo Fields | House | purchase | 2026-06-26 | 2026-06-11 | $1–15K |
| Matthew Robert Van Epps | House | sale | 2026-06-17 | 2026-06-16 | $1–15K |
| Jonathan Jackson | House | sale | 2026-06-16 | 2026-05-12 | $15–50K |
| Michael T. McCaul | House | sale | 2026-06-10 | 2026-05-21 | $1–15K |
| Michael T. McCaul | House | sale | 2026-06-10 | 2026-05-22 | $50–100K |
| Michael T. McCaul | House | sale | 2026-06-10 | 2026-05-26 | $15–50K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-21 | $1–15K |
What's happening · recap
claude-sonnet-5Generated 2026-07-25 · stored before display, never written live
On 2026-07-24, multiple law firms publicized securities-fraud investigations and class-action lead-plaintiff solicitations related to Microsoft, while separate reports described Microsoft joining other technology firms in lobbying policymakers on AI regulation and open-source AI models; broader market coverage also noted heavy declines among large technology stocks tied to AI spending concerns that day.
In the news
Rosen Law Firm reminded purchasers of Microsoft common stock between May 1, 2025 and January 28, 2026 of an upcoming deadline related to a securities class action.
Read →A report noted that Microsoft shareholders who lost money have the option to seek a lead role in a securities fraud lawsuit.
Read →The Law Offices of Frank R. Cruz announced that investors with losses related to Microsoft have the option to seek a lead plaintiff role in a securities fraud class action.
Read →CNBC reported that investors have been penalizing companies with heavy AI capital spending while favoring capex-lite business models.
Read →Bragar Eagel & Squire, P.C. urged Microsoft investors who suffered losses to contact the firm regarding a lead plaintiff role in litigation.
Read →Magnificent Seven stocks, including Microsoft, collectively lost $787 billion in market value in a single day amid concerns tied to AI infrastructure capital spending disclosed by Alphabet and Tesla.
Read →Microsoft and Nvidia, along with other technology companies, made a public case to lawmakers in favor of open-source AI models.
Read →Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. Full terms.