Crypto — distribution outlooks

The crypto majors, each with the range its own history produced. Separate record from stocks.

What we publish for crypto — and what we don't

Crypto's monthly direction has not proven calibratable in our validation harness (gate run 2026-07-25). So for crypto we publish the distribution ranges that did hold up — not a directional probability. We would rather show you the honest ranges than a number we cannot stand behind.

The crypto universe (v1 'majors') is the set of coins with continuous daily price history since 2017-08-01 that rank in the top 10 by current market capitalization. Two limitations we state plainly: this list contains only survivors, so its historical statistics are flattered by construction; and it is ranked by current — not point-in-time — market cap. A point-in-time universe arrives when a historical-rankings source does.

Majors · as of 2026-07-24

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. Full terms.