Based on its own history, a month from now META has typically landed between −17.1% and +18.7%.
actual price median path middle 50% (IQR) 90% range
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 3,544 windows spanning 2012-05-18 to 2026-07-24. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2022-02-02 | −38.1% | −38.6% | +0.0% |
| 2022-02-01 | −36.4% | −37.8% | +1.3% |
| 2022-10-05 | −36.0% | −36.0% | +0.1% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2013-07-05 | +60.8% | +0.0% | +60.8% |
| 2013-07-08 | +56.0% | +0.0% | +58.6% |
| 2013-07-03 | +55.2% | −0.6% | +55.2% |
3,544 overlapping windows · 2012-05-18 – 2026-07-24 · not cherry-picked
FundamentalsiAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.
$1.5T
market cap
$27.50
EPS (TTM)
21.6
P/E (TTM)
2026-07-29
next earnings
Revenue$201.0B
'20'25
Net income$60.5B
'20'25
Free cash flow$46.1B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr30.1%
'20'25
ROE · by yr27.8%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr0.39
'20'25
Fair value — three views
iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 17 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.- DCF (intrinsic)$266.94
- Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 16.0× · n=17$440.73
- Analyst target · range $700.00–$900.00$842.50
- Current price$595.19
Seasonality · by month
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~15 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
71%
+9.1%
n=14
Feb
36%
−1.0%
n=14
Mar
50%
−0.6%
n=14
Apr
64%
+4.5%
n=14
May
79%
+3.3%
n=14
Jun
73%
+2.5%
n=15
Jul
73%
+4.9%
n=15
Aug
64%
+1.2%
n=14
Sep
50%
+0.8%
n=14
Oct
43%
−2.5%
n=14
Nov
64%
+4.3%
n=14
Dec
64%
+1.4%
n=14
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Company insiders
Last 90 days · as of 2026-07-22 · point-in-time by filing date
Conviction purchases (open-market common)none
Insider open-market sales65 · $25.2M
What was excluded from the conviction count, and why
88 option exercises, 11 award/RSU grants, 9 tax-withholding dispositions and 2 gifts excluded — these carry no conviction information.
Congressional disclosuresiDisclosures shown as facts. In our data, weeks with clustered congressional buying showed no forward edge (−17 bp/mo, n=1,683) — this is not a signal to trade on. See /methodology.
As of 2026-07-22 · point-in-time by filed date
All disclosed trades (broad sample)baseline forward return +1.97%/mo · n=826,150 ticker-weeks
≥2-distinct-buyer clusters (subset)+1.80%/mo · n=1,683 → −17 bp/mo vs baseline — no forward edge
The spec's illustrative “+46 bp/mo (n=38,134)” cluster tilt is not reproduced in our data (audition-log 2026-07-25) — so we publish the measured figures above, not that number.
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alan Armstrong | Senate | purchase | 2026-07-21 | 2026-03-27 | $15–50K |
| Daniel Crenshaw | House | sale | 2026-07-16 | 2026-06-01 | $1–15K |
| Daniel Crenshaw | House | purchase | 2026-07-16 | 2026-04-28 | $1–15K |
| Daniel Crenshaw | House | sale | 2026-07-16 | 2026-05-05 | $1–15K |
| Matthew Robert Van Epps | House | sale | 2026-06-17 | 2026-06-16 | $1–15K |
| John Mcguire | House | purchase | 2026-06-10 | 2026-06-04 | $1–15K |
| Michael T. McCaul | House | purchase | 2026-06-10 | 2026-05-28 | $15–50K |
| Michael T. McCaul | House | purchase | 2026-05-04 | 2026-04-17 | $1–15K |
| Angus King | Senate | sale | 2026-03-24 | 2026-02-13 | $1–15K |
| Julia Letlow | House | purchase | 2026-03-12 | 2026-02-12 | $1–15K |
| Michael T. McCaul | House | purchase | 2026-03-10 | 2026-02-20 | $1–15K |
| Michael T. McCaul | House | purchase | 2026-03-10 | 2026-02-11 | $1–15K |
| Cleo Fields | House | purchase | 2026-02-24 | 2026-02-03 | $100–250K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | purchase | 2026-02-13 | 2026-01-30 | $1–15K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. Full terms.