Nvidia and South Korea's SK Group unveiled an initiative exceeding $500 billion spanning large-scale AI data centers and next-generation memory.
Read →Based on its own history, a month from now NVDA has typically landed between −18.3% and +29.4%.
actual price median path middle 50% (IQR) 90% range
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,648 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-07-24. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2008-06-05 | −51.3% | −51.3% | +0.0% |
| 2008-06-09 | −50.1% | −50.1% | +0.0% |
| 2008-06-06 | −50.0% | −50.0% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2010-12-15 | +65.3% | +0.0% | +65.3% |
| 2010-12-22 | +64.5% | −0.7% | +64.5% |
| 2010-12-28 | +63.8% | +0.0% | +65.5% |
4,648 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-07-24 · not cherry-picked
FundamentalsiAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.
$5.0T
market cap
$6.53
EPS (TTM)
31.7
P/E (TTM)
2026-08-26
next earnings
Revenue$215.9B
'21'26
Net income$120.1B
'21'26
Free cash flow$96.7B
'21'26
Net margin · by yr55.6%
'21'26
ROE · by yr76.3%
'21'26
Debt / equity · by yr0.07
'21'26
Fair value — three views
iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 80 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.- DCF (intrinsic)$239.30
- Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 34.2× · n=80$223.36
- Analyst target · range $218.00–$500.00$300.00
- Current price$206.84
Seasonality · by month
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
50%
+5.3%
n=18
Feb
68%
+5.3%
n=19
Mar
53%
+2.9%
n=19
Apr
58%
+0.8%
n=19
May
79%
+9.5%
n=19
Jun
47%
+0.1%
n=19
Jul
58%
+1.9%
n=19
Aug
78%
+6.0%
n=18
Sep
61%
+0.2%
n=18
Oct
61%
+2.2%
n=18
Nov
78%
+6.5%
n=18
Dec
56%
+2.3%
n=18
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Company insiders
Last 90 days · as of 2026-07-22 · point-in-time by filing date
Conviction purchases (open-market common)none
Insider open-market sales7 · $410.6M
What was excluded from the conviction count, and why
11 award/RSU grants, 5 tax-withholding dispositions and 3 gifts excluded — these carry no conviction information.
Congressional disclosuresiDisclosures shown as facts. In our data, weeks with clustered congressional buying showed no forward edge (−17 bp/mo, n=1,683) — this is not a signal to trade on. See /methodology.
As of 2026-07-22 · point-in-time by filed date
All disclosed trades (broad sample)baseline forward return +1.97%/mo · n=826,150 ticker-weeks
≥2-distinct-buyer clusters (subset)+1.80%/mo · n=1,683 → −17 bp/mo vs baseline — no forward edge
The spec's illustrative “+46 bp/mo (n=38,134)” cluster tilt is not reproduced in our data (audition-log 2026-07-25) — so we publish the measured figures above, not that number.
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alan Armstrong | Senate | purchase | 2026-07-21 | 2026-03-30 | $1–15K |
| Alan Armstrong | Senate | purchase | 2026-07-21 | 2026-03-27 | $50–100K |
| Dan Newhouse | House | sale | 2026-07-17 | 2026-07-10 | $1–15K |
| Cleo Fields | House | purchase | 2026-07-16 | 2026-06-26 | $1–15K |
| Cleo Fields | House | purchase | 2026-07-16 | 2026-06-26 | $1–15K |
| Cleo Fields | House | purchase | 2026-07-16 | 2026-06-26 | $1–15K |
| Sheldon Whitehouse | Senate | sale | 2026-07-08 | 2026-06-30 | $15–50K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-07-06 | 2026-06-05 | $1–15K |
| Daniel Meuser | House | sale | 2026-07-02 | 2026-05-27 | $1–15K |
| Matthew Robert Van Epps | House | sale | 2026-06-17 | 2026-06-16 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-01 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-27 | $1–15K |
| Sheldon Whitehouse | Senate | sale | 2026-06-02 | 2026-05-08 | $100–250K |
| Sheldon Whitehouse | Senate | sale | 2026-06-02 | 2026-05-08 | $100–250K |
What's happening · recap
claude-sonnet-5Generated 2026-07-25 · stored before display, never written live
On 2026-07-24, Nvidia and South Korea's SK Group announced a joint initiative exceeding $500 billion for AI data centers and next-generation memory, while Nvidia also joined other technology firms urging changes to AI-related policy; other coverage that day discussed semiconductor sector price movement and commentary without new company-specific developments.
In the news
Nvidia joined Microsoft, Meta Platforms, Palantir Technologies and more than 20 other technology companies in urging U.S. policymakers regarding AI-related restrictions.
Read →A commentary piece discussed Broadcom and Micron as alternative technology companies amid Nvidia's recent share performance.
Read →A technical analysis piece described Nvidia shares holding key support with a chart pattern that analysts said could open the door to higher levels if resistance is broken.
Read →A market commentary segment discussed Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang's public activity and broader economic resilience amid Mag 7 earnings season.
Read →A commentary piece described the author's continued purchases of Nvidia shares during the current earnings season, citing economic reasoning.
Read →An analysis of the semiconductor sector noted a July 2026 pullback following strong 2026 performance, attributing it to profit-taking, valuation concerns, and unwinding of leveraged positions.
Read →A discussion segment addressed differing views on Nvidia's competitive position and valuation, referencing Jensen Huang's strategy of investing in other AI-related companies.
Read →Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. Full terms.