Based on its own history, a month from now AMZN has typically landed between −14.7% and +15.3%.
actual price median path middle 50% (IQR) 90% range
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,648 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-07-24. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2008-09-16 | −38.1% | −38.1% | +2.8% |
| 2008-09-19 | −34.6% | −39.8% | +0.0% |
| 2008-09-18 | −33.9% | −36.3% | +5.7% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2008-11-19 | +44.1% | −2.2% | +48.6% |
| 2008-11-20 | +42.3% | +0.0% | +52.0% |
| 2009-10-12 | +39.1% | −0.2% | +39.1% |
4,648 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-07-24 · not cherry-picked
FundamentalsiAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.
$2.5T
market cap
$8.36
EPS (TTM)
27.8
P/E (TTM)
2026-07-30
next earnings
Revenue$716.9B
'20'25
Net income$77.7B
'20'25
Free cash flow$7.7B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr10.8%
'20'25
ROE · by yr18.9%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr0.37
'20'25
Fair value — three views
iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 50 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.- DCF (intrinsic)$67.30
- Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 23.8× · n=50$199.15
- Analyst target · range $175.00–$335.00$320.00
- Current price$232.11
Seasonality · by month
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
67%
+5.2%
n=18
Feb
42%
−2.0%
n=19
Mar
74%
+3.9%
n=19
Apr
74%
+6.0%
n=19
May
63%
+1.3%
n=19
Jun
68%
+1.7%
n=19
Jul
74%
+5.6%
n=19
Aug
50%
+1.1%
n=18
Sep
39%
+0.6%
n=18
Oct
56%
+1.8%
n=18
Nov
72%
+2.6%
n=18
Dec
44%
−0.5%
n=18
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Company insiders
Last 90 days · as of 2026-07-22 · point-in-time by filing date
Conviction purchases (open-market common)none
Insider open-market sales34 · $38.4M
What was excluded from the conviction count, and why
36 option exercises and 2 gifts excluded — these carry no conviction information.
Congressional disclosuresiDisclosures shown as facts. In our data, weeks with clustered congressional buying showed no forward edge (−17 bp/mo, n=1,683) — this is not a signal to trade on. See /methodology.
As of 2026-07-22 · point-in-time by filed date
All disclosed trades (broad sample)baseline forward return +1.97%/mo · n=826,150 ticker-weeks
≥2-distinct-buyer clusters (subset)+1.80%/mo · n=1,683 → −17 bp/mo vs baseline — no forward edge
The spec's illustrative “+46 bp/mo (n=38,134)” cluster tilt is not reproduced in our data (audition-log 2026-07-25) — so we publish the measured figures above, not that number.
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alan Armstrong | Senate | purchase | 2026-07-21 | 2026-03-27 | $15–50K |
| Daniel Crenshaw | House | sale | 2026-07-16 | 2026-06-01 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-07-06 | 2026-06-16 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-07-06 | 2026-06-05 | $1–15K |
| Matthew Robert Van Epps | House | sale | 2026-06-17 | 2026-06-16 | $1–15K |
| David J. Taylor | House | sale | 2026-06-12 | 2026-06-05 | $1–15K |
| Michael T. McCaul | House | sale | 2026-06-10 | 2026-05-26 | $15–50K |
| Michael T. McCaul | House | sale | 2026-06-10 | 2026-05-28 | $15–50K |
| Michael T. McCaul | House | sale | 2026-06-10 | 2026-05-07 | $1–15K |
| Tim Walberg | House | purchase | 2026-06-03 | 2025-02-07 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-05-11 | 2026-04-02 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | purchase | 2026-05-08 | 2026-04-22 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | purchase | 2026-05-08 | 2026-04-14 | $1–15K |
| Jonathan Jackson | House | sale | 2026-04-08 | 2026-03-09 | $1–15K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. Full terms.