Based on its own history, a month from now TSLA has typically landed between −22.9% and +34.5%.
actual price median path middle 50% (IQR) 90% range
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,021 windows spanning 2010-06-29 to 2026-07-24. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-18 | −57.9% | −57.9% | +6.9% |
| 2020-02-19 | −53.4% | −60.6% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-20 | −52.5% | −59.8% | +0.2% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2013-04-26 | +115.8% | +0.0% | +115.8% |
| 2020-03-18 | +108.7% | +0.0% | +108.7% |
| 2013-04-17 | +103.0% | +0.0% | +103.0% |
4,021 overlapping windows · 2010-06-29 – 2026-07-24 · not cherry-picked
FundamentalsiAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.
$1.2T
market cap
$1.08
EPS (TTM)
289.8
P/E (TTM)
2026-10-28
next earnings
Revenue$94.8B
'20'25
Net income$3.8B
'20'25
Free cash flow$6.2B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr4.0%
'20'25
ROE · by yr4.6%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr0.10
'20'25
Fair value — three views
iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 50 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.- DCF (intrinsic)$18.27
- Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 23.8× · n=50$25.73
- Analyst target · range $370.00–$508.00$417.00
- Current price$313.03
Seasonality · by month
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~17 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
56%
+5.5%
n=16
Feb
44%
+1.0%
n=16
Mar
44%
−1.2%
n=16
Apr
63%
+5.9%
n=16
May
50%
+6.6%
n=16
Jun
69%
+8.2%
n=16
Jul
47%
+2.2%
n=17
Aug
50%
+6.0%
n=16
Sep
44%
+2.3%
n=16
Oct
38%
+2.5%
n=16
Nov
69%
+10.6%
n=16
Dec
63%
+1.0%
n=16
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Company insiders
Last 90 days · as of 2026-07-22 · point-in-time by filing date
Conviction purchases (open-market common)none
Insider open-market sales18 · $12.4M
What was excluded from the conviction count, and why
10 option exercises and 1 tax-withholding dispositions excluded — these carry no conviction information.
Congressional disclosuresiDisclosures shown as facts. In our data, weeks with clustered congressional buying showed no forward edge (−17 bp/mo, n=1,683) — this is not a signal to trade on. See /methodology.
As of 2026-07-22 · point-in-time by filed date
All disclosed trades (broad sample)baseline forward return +1.97%/mo · n=826,150 ticker-weeks
≥2-distinct-buyer clusters (subset)+1.80%/mo · n=1,683 → −17 bp/mo vs baseline — no forward edge
The spec's illustrative “+46 bp/mo (n=38,134)” cluster tilt is not reproduced in our data (audition-log 2026-07-25) — so we publish the measured figures above, not that number.
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alan Armstrong | Senate | purchase | 2026-07-21 | 2026-03-27 | $15–50K |
| Alan Armstrong | Senate | purchase | 2026-07-21 | 2026-03-30 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-07-06 | 2026-06-16 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-07-06 | 2026-06-30 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-15 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-27 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | purchase | 2026-06-08 | 2026-05-29 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-05-11 | 2026-04-13 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | purchase | 2026-05-08 | 2026-04-14 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-04-07 | 2026-03-30 | $15–50K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-04-07 | 2026-03-10 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | sale | 2026-04-07 | 2026-03-13 | $15–50K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-03-09 | 2026-02-06 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-03-09 | 2026-02-24 | $15–50K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. Full terms.